Professional Development

Prediction Techniques and the 2012 Election

 

barack-obama smThe daily countdown to the Presidential election has started in earnest. It's the season of prediction, so of course astrologers are feeling right at home. Since the Presidential Panel in May at UAC 2012 to the latest commentary in blogs, newsletters and the Huffington post, astrologers have used a wide variety of indicators to determine how the candidates will fare. Below I have highlighted a few of the more interesting columns that present a variety of techniques, from modern to ancient, Western to Vedic. Although most predict President Obama will win, no one thinks it is going to be an easy path.

1) Larry Schwimmer

Businessman and astrologer, in the Huffington Post on 8/27/12 and 9/5/12

Schwimmer's two-part series provided an modern astrological perspective. Part 1 covered the Romney-Ryan ticket and Part 2 Obama-Biden. Larry does a great job of presenting his findings without astrological jargon. Based on current transits, he boils down the indicators to "This election will get meaner, uglier and turn into a fierce 'dog-fight' that will be close, surprising and very upsetting." "This will be the 2012 version of 'Gunfight at the OK Corral.'" Giving a basic astrological profile, Schwimmer explored the personalities and leadership styles of both Romney and Obama, the pitfalls shown by their transits, and why each could win or lose.

Schwimmer notes that Romney is ambitious, an optimist, spiritual and intelligent. He also notes that Romney often lacks common sense and projects insincerity. Schwimmer also notes that in mid-September through October, while he's climbing in popularity, "unexpected information comes out about him and some of his past associations that are not flattering." He also warns that from mid-October to election day, there will be "upsets, frustrations and challenges." Schwimmer does not seem hopeful of Romney's chances at winning.

Schwimmer notes that Obama is a likeable and charismatic speaker, but projects "coolness" in his demeanor. He also can be too balanced and come out as "overly indecisive in his approach to problem-solving." His expectation for the debates is that "Obama will score points and induce Romney to make some major 'verbal gaffes' that get him into trouble." With more favorable astrological indicators, Schwimmer predicts Obama will win, but that the Mercury retrograde on election day "will likely result in a 'contested election.' with major upsets and surprises"

2) Joseph Crane

September 2012 article combines modern and traditional techniques to examine The Astrology of the 2012 Presidential Election.

Crane uses synastry, the election chart, natal interpretation, transits, progressions and solar returns. His conclusion, "Obama and Romney do not like each other or even respect each other; in fact they drive each other a bit crazy.  There‚Äôs also sufficient Mars intruding on the first debate that it may be a rhetorical Armageddon.  Expect an October surprise of some kind, one that will make Obama look bad, although his campaign will probably survive intact.  Romney may wilt sometime before the end of the campaign, a victim of physical stress or exhaustion. Election Day may be filled with confusion and rancor, but Obama will likely carry the Electoral College (but possibly not the overall popular vote).  Both men will go through a period of depression after the election, not just the loser."

2) The NeptuneCafe's overview

Using modern Western astrology, particularly progressions and connections to the Inauguration chart.

On June 4 and 11, 2012, the NeptuneCafe responded to the UAC 2012 predictions of an Obama win. The article entitled Election Day Uncertainty is interesting because it uses the January 20, 2013 inauguration chart instead of the November 6 election day chart (because of Mercury retrograde). Using progressions, the NeptuneCafe notes that on January 20, "the planetary flags are surprisingly few. "Note that transiting Mercury at 2 degrees Aquarius is exactly opposite his natal Mercury. This looks like a hand off to his successor." "In contrast, Romney's chart looks like gold." There is also a comparison between the candidates and the US chart (the Scorpio rising version).

3) Chris Brennan and Hellenistic techniques

With a particular focus on inception charts and electional astrology.

On August 31, 2012, Chris Brennan commented on the The Astrology of the Republican National Convention at The Political Astrology Blog. Using Hellenistic techniques, Brennan examined the inception chart for the convention, the timing of the delegate vote and major speeches, as well as Romney's nomination and acceptance speech. He also makes an interesting observation for that speech  "Venus is applying to a square with Saturn, which is the malefic that is contrary to the sect in this night chart, which is a classical condition of affliction or maltreatment.  There is reception between the two, which lessens the severity of the affliction somewhat, but it is still a close applying square to the most difficult planet in the chart.  Although Saturn is the ruler of the 10th, which may be the office that Romney seeks, ultimately can such a difficult configuration between these two significators represent success in such an endeavor?"

On September 11, 2012, Brennan followed-up his analyses with The 2012 Conventions: Horoscope Comparison. Conclusion? "Ultimately I have to give the award to the DNC here for the better inception chart for their convention.  Although the RNC chart has the virtue of not having the Moon closely applying to a hard aspect with a malefic, the DNC chart has a much stronger ruler of the ascendant." He is not overly enthusiastic about the timing of when the roll call showed each candidate had secured the nomination. "The shortcoming in both seems to be with the Moon placement.  Romney has the Moon applying to a square with a contrary to the sect Mars, and Obama has the Moon in the 12th, void, and applying to an out of sign sextile with Venus." In his opinion, he gives the edge to Obama "with Jupiter on the ascendant." He also gives Obama the edge for the timing of Obama's acceptance speech.

4) Curtis Mawaring on Election 2012 - Obama vs Romney and Beyond

Also using a Hellenistic techniques, including the place of acquisition.

Curtis Manwaring begins his article by looking back to Presidents Clinton and Bush. His premise is that "that the place of acquisition in the presidents' charts show what can be said about the nation's economy during their reign in the broadest sense. It sums up the state of the nation's economic health." He uses this technique to examine both Clinton's and Bush's charts with the proviso, "I don't place much credit on Clinton for creating the prosperity of his era and I don't entirely blame Bush for the economic collapse of 2008. These are just two not very important people when contrasted with the whole world of people who have actually had greater impact on the economy such as those who were responsible for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. I am thinking of their charts as an "apotelesma" (outcome) of a long process that started with special interests and the motivations of many people."

What is intriguing in this article is Manwaring's analysis of Valens and his comments on the part of fortune and part of spirit and how he applies this information to Obama's chart. He ties his conclusions to Obama's win in 2008. Next he looks to the 2012 election with an insightful comment, "Traditionally, astrologers find who has the most favorable transits, progressions, etc., and from the preponderance of the testimony declare the winner. This approach has a lot of problems. First and most obvious is that maybe being elected to office will be the worst thing that happens to the candidate." So once again, he works with the lots and to the method of profections. Interestingly, with this method "Obama will be in a 4th house profection year and according to Valens' method, the only active handing over is the Moon to Mars. This is not typically a good handing over as it is indicative of bloodshed and bodily weakness in a typical chart (eminent nativities are judged differently)." and "Romney is in a 6th house profection year which means that the Sun, Mercury and Mars all hand over to Saturn. Four years from now Romney not only reaches his 10th house profection year, but he will have reached his 10th from fortune in 2016."

Manwaring's conclusion is that "If the standard rules that winning the seat of president indicate favorable astrological conditions, then I would have to say that Obama has the edge. If a connection to specific dates through the releasing is an indication, then Romney might pull off an upset. ... So I would suspect that in the month before the election, Romney feeling pretty good says some things carelessly that he will later regret due to his Mercury retrograde in fall. However, as incomprehensible as it seems currently, I do think that this election is going to be a close one and there could be a Truman/Dewey style upset announcement that later gets reversed due to Mercury retrograde or some similar dispute over election irregularities."

Vedic astrology perspectives

On September 15, 2012, Raj Shekhar Sharma, a Vedic astrologer from India, looked at the election through the lens of President Obama's dasha period (currently Jupiter/Rahu) and planetary transits. In his analysis, "Conclusively, the overall planetary strength (dasa and transit) may not be equally strong as it was during 2008, when Barack Obama was successfully registered his victory. The Antardasa lord Rahu is also not having any direct and strong relationship with the planets (viz. the Sun, Mercury, Jupiter and Saturn), which are primarily responsible for professional success. Therefore, it may be a bit difficult for Barack Obama to get re-elected; and the chances are not looking in his favor."

In June 2012, The Modern Vedic Astrology blog by Christopher Kevill, took a much more detailed look at both Obama's and Romney's chart. "As the late Richard Houck liked to remind me, transits are only one part of the overall puzzle and they are usually not the determining factor in elections. ... Following Houck's teachings, I have found that a judicious use of progressions, dashas and a few other techniques are probably more decisive in these matters." Kevill does use a combination of techniques, including dashas, planetary strength, transits and progressions in the analysis that follows. He too notes the possibility of a replay of the contested 2000 election.

In conclusion, Kevill predicts that Obama will win, "Obama's tertiary progressed Sun achieves its point of maximum northern declination at 23N24 in November 2012.  This is another piece of evidence that makes me think that Obama will win.  As an added enhancement to Obama's chances, I should also note that VP Joe Biden has a direct station of tertiary progressed Neptune in the 11th house in October." But while Romney has a powerful chart in 2012, "One possible shortcoming in his chart is that Mercury is retrograde and conjunct 12th lord of losses, Mars.  The other potential problem is that neither dasha lord Sun or Mercury receives a helpful transiting aspect at the time of the election.  In fact, the Sun receives a difficult square aspect from 12th lord Mars on November 6.  The 12th lord is usually unhelpful in this regard and may be interpreted as a negative influence."

 

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